I have been watching the news from Pakistan the last week or so with a growing sense of fear and trepidation.
What does the news from there have to do with us here in Arnprior and McNab-Braeside and West Carleton? A lot - if the truth be known.
The news from Poland and Germany in the late 1930s may not have seemed too important either to most of us here – until just a few scant months later – when parents of the day started sending their children overseas to fight.
This Sunday we are reminded of their sacrifices on the battlefields of Europe and Africa and Asia and the Pacific.
We stand below the cenotaph in all our communities that lists the names of those who gave the ultimate sacrifice on the battlefield. These names are all from our local communities in Arnprior, McNab-Braeside and West Carleton. They are the men who never returned to establish families and businesses; they are the youth of our communities who are still buried in far-off cemeteries, lost to us forever.
That is what the news in Pakistan means to us today, right now and right here.
Whether most of us realize it or not yet – we are standing on edge of very large abyss, one that has the very real potential to plunge us deep into the horrors of another massive war sooner rather than later.

Heed what I predicted in this same column shortly before the American invasion of Afghanistan:
On top of the quagmire the Americans are headed into in Afghanistan, how long will it be before some of the other countries in the area who are now on the US side, either change their minds due to internal pressures or are overthrown by more militant elements within their own countries?
I suspect that Pakistan is in a very delicate position internally. All appears well right now, but for how long? A radicalized Pakistani regime is not a happy thought. They have nuclear capability, and India might well decide to make a move in Kashmir if the Pakistani government is weakened. That could have catastrophic consequences.
And this is only the beginning.
If any single one of these countries falls or declares itself at war with the US, then the whole stack of cards comes crashing down.
That is exactly why Bush has been so careful in reiterating endlessly about not attacking Muslims, but rather the terrorists. His handlers know the grave dangers that could emerge with little warning if the more moderate elements rebel.
However, if they are serious about taking on the terrorists, they almost certainly will spark the powder keg at one point or another.
When that happens, our oil supplies will dry up and we will find ourselves face to face with a dozen major nations with sizable arsenals facing off against the coalition.
Bush is right that this would not be a short war, it could easily turn into another world war where the causalities on both sides will number in the millions.
(No Holds Barred – December 2001)

The only thing that surprises me is that it has taken so long. I expected the Indians and the Pakistanis to get into it sooner and they almost did. Only US intervention threatening both sides stopped it then. This time that intervention won’t happen.
If radical elements gain control of the Pakistani government, it is all over but the gnashing of teeth. They will have instant access to a sophisticated nuclear arsenal, right across the border from Afghanistan and the US will have to either leave the area immediately or attack Pakistan.
There are simply no other options.
How long will the Saudi government survive when Iran, Syria, Pakistan and others form a coalition against the West? My guess would be less than a month, unless the US tries to hold Saudi Arabia by pure force of arms. Iraq would also explode into complete anarchy.
The US would be far overextended, yet it has to protect the oil supplies on which its entire economy depends.
The financial markets already can see this coming – which is just one of the reasons the price of oil is set to top $100 per barrel and the US greenback is in freefall.
If Pakistan or India tries to move on Kashmir while the Pakistani government is weakened or in transition, a nuclear showdown is inevitable.
That will require US intervention on a massive scale, and Canada will surely be dragged in. Estimates of civilian causalities alone in the opening week of such hostilities have been estimated by the United Nations to be about 12 million.
Whatever happens in the end, if the Pakistani government falls, and a truly moderate replacement is not in place immediately, the fuse will have been lit, and before we know it half the world will be ablaze in war.
Yes, I am watching the events in Pakistan with a growing sense of dread that my original predictions are finally coming true.
This is why we should never forget not only those who died – but the events that led to their sacrifice.
A society that forgets the lessons of history – has no future.

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